2013年3月13日 星期三
2013年3月11日 星期一
2013年3月6日 星期三
基本的分析工具分享：1：Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,and Threats(SWOT)
Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities and Threats(SWOT)
This is one of the most common business analysis tools that take into account both the competitiveness of the business itself,as well as the attractiveness of the industry it is operating within.
The strengths and weaknesses looks to identify how well a business stands against its competitors in the same industry. The S/W score is calculated on a 0 to 10 scale.A S/W score over 5 indicates that the business has a competitive advantages against other companies in the same industry.
The opportunities and threats looks to identify how attractive a particular industry is,by balancing the potential rewards versus risks. The O/T score is calculated on a 0 to 10 scale. An O/T score over 5 indicates that this industry offers a health balance of rewards compared to the potential for losses.
The overall SWOT score gives a complete picture of whether a company should operate in a certain industry,by combining the attractiveness of the industry (whether a company would want to be there) and the ability of the company to success in the industry (whether a company can survive if it were there). The SWOT score is calculated on a 0 to 10 scale. A SWOT score over 5 indicates a good opportunity for a business to be successful.
Calculator
Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis
1.Rate the availability of knowledge required (or ease with which they can be acquired.)
Scale 0~10
2.Rate the availability of resources required (or ease with which they can be acquired.)
Scale 0~10
3.Rate the availability of networks required (or ease with which they can be acquired.)
Scale 0~10
4.Rate the ability of this company to overcome barriers of entry to this industry.
Scale 0~10
5.Rate the existence of key competitive advantages that this company possesses over competitors.
Scale 0~10
6.Rate the size of this company relative to competitors.
Scale 0~10
7.Rate the experience of this company relative to competitors.
Scale 0~10
Opportunities and Threats Analysis
1.Rate the value of the present opportunity versus alternate investments.
Scale 0~10
2.Rate the extent to which current market trends support this opportunity.
Scale 0~10
3.Rate the extent to which this company has unique attributes that fit this opportunity.
Scale 0~10
4.Rate the prospect for long term sustainability of this business opportunity.
Scale 0~10
5.Rate the level of existing competition.
Scale 0~10
6.Rate the barriers to entry for new players into this industry.
Scale 0~10
7.Rate the probability of substitutions or new innovations affecting this industry.
Scale 0~10
8.Rate the extent that government regulations may harm/benefit this industry.
Scale 0~10
9.Rate the extent of susceptibility to external risk factors(ex.material shortages,natural disasters).
Scale 0~10
10.Rate the extent that this industry is subject to liability risk factors(ex.product recalls,slips and falls on premise).
Scale 0~10
I think follow the check list of above that can make a direction for action plan ！！
2013年2月20日 星期三
做採購預測的重要參考報告
PMI Report
2013.01 Taiwan PMI Report
2013年1月台灣製造業採購經理人指數（中文）產能利用率 Capacity Utilization
美國聯邦準備理事會FRB，每月中旬發佈；分界點80％，以上為 賣方市場，以下為買方市場。（實際產出量（Production）÷設計產能（Capacity）×100％）
存貨-銷售比率 I/S ratio
美國國家統計局，每月中旬發佈前二月資料。（存貨金額/銷售金額）
採購經理人指數 PMI介紹
採購經理人指數 PMI 介紹
月彙整約350家製造商的資料，在每個月的第一個營業日公佈的商業調查報告。是製造業
報告延伸出的一個綜合指數，內容包含了五個主要項目：新訂單、生產、就業、供應商
交貨及存貨等的月報 。
當採購經理人指數超過50%時，表示整體製造業景氣在擴張；如果指數低於50%時，
則是代表整個製造業的景氣在衰退。還有，當指數在一段時間超過42.5%的時候，表示整
體經濟或國內生產毛額（GDP)基本上處於擴張階段；反之當指數在一段時間低於42.5%
時，就表示處於衰退階段。
PMI報告屬於領先指標是採購預測中的一份重要參考資料，後續再來探討報告內容，
先提供PMI報告的網址給各位先上去看看。
網址如下：
1：目前台灣中華採購與供應管理協會已開始提供PMI報告（試編階段）
台灣PMI：http://www.smit.org.tw/ugC_News_Detail.asp?hidNewsID=2722：中國物流與採購聯合會等提供的PMI
中國PMI：http://big5.china.com.cn/economic/node_7043377.htm
3： 美國PMI：http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/?navItemNumber=4892
2000~2012 美國PMI歷史記錄表
JAN
|
FEB
|
MAR
|
APR
|
MAY
|
JUN
|
JUL
|
AUG
|
SEP
|
OCT
|
NOV
|
DEC
|
|
2013
|
53.1
|
|||||||||||
2012
|
53.7
|
51.9
|
53.3
|
54.1
|
52.5
|
50.2
|
50.5
|
50.7
|
51.6
|
51.7
|
49.9
|
50.2
|
2011
|
59.2
|
59.6
|
59.3
|
59.4
|
53.5
|
55.8
|
52.3
|
53.2
|
53.2
|
51.5
|
52.3
|
52.9
|
2010
|
56.6
|
55.7
|
59.3
|
58.9
|
57.8
|
56.1
|
56.4
|
57.8
|
56.5
|
57.3
|
58.2
|
57.3
|
2009
|
34.9
|
35.5
|
36.0
|
39.5
|
41.7
|
45.8
|
49.9
|
53.5
|
54.4
|
56.0
|
54.4
|
55.3
|
2008
|
50.3
|
47.6
|
48.3
|
48.8
|
48.8
|
49.8
|
50.0
|
49.2
|
44.8
|
38.9
|
36.5
|
33.1
|
2007
|
49.5
|
51.9
|
50.7
|
52.6
|
52.5
|
52.6
|
52.4
|
50.9
|
51.0
|
51.1
|
50.5
|
49.0
|
2006
|
55.0
|
55.8
|
54.3
|
55.2
|
53.7
|
52.0
|
53.0
|
53.7
|
52.2
|
51.4
|
50.3
|
51.4
|
2005
|
56.8
|
55.5
|
55.2
|
52.2
|
50.8
|
52.4
|
52.8
|
52.4
|
56.8
|
57.2
|
56.7
|
55.1
|
2004
|
60.8
|
59.9
|
60.6
|
60.6
|
61.4
|
60.5
|
59.9
|
58.5
|
57.4
|
56.3
|
56.2
|
57.2
|
2003
|
51.3
|
48.8
|
46.3
|
46.1
|
49.0
|
49.0
|
51.0
|
53.2
|
52.4
|
55.2
|
58.4
|
60.1
|
2002
|
47.5
|
50.7
|
52.4
|
52.4
|
53.1
|
53.6
|
50.2
|
50.3
|
50.5
|
49.0
|
48.5
|
51.6
|
2001
|
42.3
|
42.1
|
43.1
|
42.7
|
41.3
|
43.2
|
43.5
|
46.3
|
46.2
|
40.8
|
44.1
|
45.3
|
2000
|
56.7
|
55.8
|
54.9
|
54.7
|
53.2
|
51.4
|
52.5
|
49.9
|
49.7
|
48.7
|
48.5
|
43.9
|
如果以3年一週期來看
2000～2002 衰退
2003～2005 擴張
2006～2008 衰退
2009～2011 擴張
2012～2013 衰退？？？個人認為會是衰退，大眾的消費習慣已趨向保守，可說是刀口上消費！在元宵燈會上看到小朋友手上有拿燈籠的差不多只有30%！
DCM（Demand Chain manage)的觀念會擴散，依實際需求製造供應將會是製造業的經營方針！
訂閱：
意見 (Atom)